Here are a few fantastic scholarly type articles.

I’ll keep adding to this list over time.

WHY ARE GAMBLING MARKETS ORGANISED SO DIFFERENTLY FROM FINANCIAL MARKETS? Steven D. Levitt

HOW DO MARKETS FUNCTION?AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF GAMBLING ON THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE Steven D. Levitt

The Mathematics of Gambling Edward O Thorp

The Kelly Critereon in Blackjack, Sports Betting and the Stock Market Edward O. Thorp

What Proportional Betting Does to Your Win Rate  Stanford Wong

The Economics of Wagering Markets RAYMOND D. SAUER

Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias: Is it Risk-Love or Misperceptions? Erik Snowberg and Justin Wolfers

RISK FORMULAS FOR PROPORTIONAL BETTING William Chin & Marc Ingenoso

How Efficient Are Information Markets? Evidence from an Online Exchange Paul C. Tetlock

Historical Prediction Markets: Wagering on Presidential Elections Paul W. Rhode & Koleman S. Strumpf

Sports Betting As A Legitimate Alternative To Traditional Investment Jess Kirley

Staking and Stuff (a few thoughts by me)

AFL Round 1 2013.

Posted: March 18, 2013 in Uncategorized

As mentioned in an earlier post, AFL 2013 will be through http://www.readingtheplay.com

A post has been started for Round 1 AFL – free to view.

The First bet has already been placed.

 

 

AFL 2013

NAB CUP Round 1.

Collingwood  -13.5 (v Bulldogs) WON
Fremantle -5.5 (v Geelong) WON
West Coast  -4.5 (v Fremantle) WON
Port Adelaide +3.5 (v St Kilda) WON
North Melbourne -4.5 (v Richmond) LOSS
Brisbane +8.5 (v Hawthorn) WON
Gold Coast +7.5 (v Brisbane) LOSS
Sydney -8.5 (v Carlton) LOSS
Greater Western Sydney +16.5 (v Sydney) WON

Aside  —  Posted: March 1, 2013 in Uncategorized

AFL 2013

Posted: February 15, 2013 in Uncategorized
Tags:

All my AFL betting in 2013 will be available through Reading the Play.

http://www.readingtheplay.com

Register now.

My NAB Cup Week 1 betting thoughts have just been posted.

Thu, 10/25/2012 – 2:31am by Andy Shen

Greg LeMond posted this to his Facebook timeline this evening. Please pass it around

Can anyone help me out? I know this sounds kind of lame but I am not well versed in social marketing. I would like to send a message to everyone that really loves cycling. I do not use twitter and do not have an organized way of getting some of my own “rage” out. I want to tell the world of cycling to please join me in telling Pat McQuaid to f##k off and resign. I have never seen such an abuse of power in cycling’s history- resign Pat if you love cycling. Resign even if you hate the sport.

Pat McQuaid, you know dam well what has been going on in cycling, and if you want to deny it, then even more reasons why those who love cycling need to demand that you resign.

I have a file with what I believe is well documented proof that will exonerate Paul.

Pat in my opinion you and Hein are the corrupt part of the sport. I do not want to include everyone at the UCI because I believe that there are many, maybe most that work at the UCI that are dedicated to cycling, they do it out of the love of the sport, but you and your buddy Hein have destroyed the sport.

Pat, I thought you loved cycling? At one time you did and if you did love cycling please dig deep inside and remember that part of your life- allow cycling to grow and flourish- please! It is time to walk away. Walk away if you love cycling.

As a reminder I just want to point out that you recently you accused me of being the cause of USADA’s investigation against Lance Armstrong. Why would you be inclined to go straight to me as the “cause”? Why shoot the messenger every time?

Every time you do this I get more and more entrenched. I was in your country over the last two weeks and I asked someone that knows you if you were someone that could be rehabilitated. His answer was very quick and it was not good for you. No was the answer, no, no , no!

The problem for sport is not drugs but corruption. You are the epitome of the word corruption.

You can read all about Webster’s definition of corruption. If you want I can re-post my attorney’s response to your letter where you threaten to sue me for calling the UCI corrupt. FYI I want to officially reiterate to you and Hein that in my opinion the two of your represent the essence of corruption.

I would encourage anyone that loves cycling to donate and support Paul in his fight against the Pat and Hein and the UCI. Skip lunch and donate the amount that you would have spent towards that Sunday buffet towards changing the sport of cycling.

I donated money for Paul’s defense, and I am willing to donate a lot more, but I would like to use it to lobby for dramatic change in cycling. The sport does not need Pat McQuaid or Hein Verbruggen- if this sport is going to change it is now. Not next year, not down the road, now! Now or never!

People that really care about cycling have the power to change cycling- change it now by voicing your thought and donating money towards Paul Kimmage’s defense, (Paul, I want to encourage you to not spend the money that has been donated to your defense fund on defending yourself in Switzerland. In my case, a USA citizen, I could care less if I lost the UCI’s bogus lawsuit. Use the money to lobby for real change).

If people really want to clean the sport of cycling up all you have to do is put your money where your mouth is.

Don’t buy a USA Cycling license. Give up racing for a year, just long enough to put the UCI and USA cycling out of business. We can then start from scratch and let the real lovers in cycling direct where and how the sport of cycling will go.

Please make a difference.
Greg

My full betting preview for the AFL Grand Final has been published.

It is available for free here - http://www.readingtheplay.com/afl-grand-final-preview-betting-advice-afl-2012/

Also you can get a preview for the 2012 NRL Grand Final for free from Reading the Play as well

http://www.readingtheplay.com/nrl-grand-final-preview-betting-advice-nrl-2012/

Of course my 2012 NFL betting previews and advice are available through reading the play – check the website out.

 

Hawthorn 2012
17 – 6 ATS TOTAL
15 – 6 ATS FAVE
1 – 0 ATS DOG
9 – 5 ATS MCG
8 – 4 ATS HOME GAMES
8 – 4 ATS HOME FAVE
0 – 0 ATS HOME DOG
9 – 2 ATS AWAY GAMES
7 – 2 ATS AWAY FAVE
3 – 2 ATS AWAY DOG
3 – 2 ATS LAST 5

Hawthorn 2012 AVERAGES
FOR 122.35
AGAINST 79.57
TOTAL 201.91
MCG
FOR 124.36
AGAINST 84.07
TOTAL 208.43
AWAY FROM THIS GROUND
FOR 119.22
AGAINST 72.56
TOTAL 191.78
LAST 5
FOR 124.00
AGAINST 82.80
TOTAL 206.80
Adelaide 2012
14 – 10 ATS TOTAL
11 – 8 ATS FAVE
3 – 2 ATS DOG
1 – 1 ATS MCG
7 – 6 ATS HOME GAMES
6 – 6 ATS HOME FAVE
1 – 0 ATS HOME DOG
7 – 4 ATS AWAY GAMES
5 – 2 ATS AWAY FAVE
3 – 2 ATS AWAY DOG
3 – 2 ATS LAST 5

Adelaide 2012 AVERAGES
FOR 106.39
AGAINST 81.52
TOTAL 187.91
MCG
FOR 117.00
AGAINST 110.50
TOTAL 227.50
AAMI Stadium
FOR 101.15
AGAINST 75.23
TOTAL 176.38
AWAY FROM AAMI
FOR 113.20
AGAINST 89.70
TOTAL 202.90
LAST 5
FOR 102.20
AGAINST 76.00
TOTAL 178.20

RECENT HEAD TO HEAD AND ATS HISTORY

R3 9/04/2012 MCG Hawthorn (-28.5) 140 d 84 Adelaide
R1 26/03/2011 AAMI Adelaide (+2.5) 105 d 85 Hawthorn
R12 12/06/2010 AURORA Hawthorn (-17.5) 124 d 77 Adelaide
R20 14/08/2009 MCG Hawthorn 67 lt 94 Adelaide (-6.5)
R10 31/05/2009 AAMI Adelaide (+8.5) 106 d 79 Hawthorn
R12 14/06/2008 AAMI Adelaide 72 lt 76 Hawthorn (PK)
R4 13/04/2008 AURORA Hawthorn (-15.5) 114 d 70 Adelaide
EF 9/08/2007 ETIHAD Hawthorn (+7.5) 105 d 102 Adelaide
R14 7/07/2007 AAMI Adelaide (-6.5) 102 d 31 Hawthorn

(team that covered the line in bold. Game winner in italics)

Short preview.

I dont like the line anymore. At -34.5 there was some value on the Hawks and i bought some of that, however as it climbed it lost value and that didn’t necessarily make me want to invest heavily on it or to take Adelaide. I have Hawthorn by 40 ish points so it is too close to play. Of  Hawthorns 18 wins, 15 have been by 35+ points. They could win this by 60+ points without really surprising anyone. The back door cover scares me though. High line and if the game is won by the last quarter  I can see them turning off and saving themselves like they did last a few weeks ago against the Eagles. That is somewhat offset by Adelaide players stopping, but either way im not taking the line.

Hawthorn have been held to under 115 points at the MCG just 3 times in 14 games this year. Once in the wet against Richmond, Once by their nemesis Geelong and the other in R23 against WCE. In 7 of 8 twilight or night games at the MCG the Hawks have been held under 115 once. Without Talia Adelaides ability to counter the Hawks forward line is severely limited. Rutten is apparently going to play on Franklin. If he stays there the whole game Franklin could kick 8. If they double team him Rioli, Roughhead and Gunston all have the ability to kick multiple goals. We saw Franklin miss games – it does not matter the Hawks have the spread and they score and score heavily.  Hawthorn has a massive amount of possessions per game (ranked #2) especially uncontested (#2) while winnings clearances (#1) and this generates an enormous amount of inside 50s (#1). The Hawks are ranked #1 in least opponent possessions per game, #3 in lest opponent clearances, #1 in least opponent inside 50s and #3 in least opponent contested possessions. Hawthorn will have their normal 55-60  inside 50s that they average at the MCG and I really doubt the crows ability to stop them scoring 120+ points. They can try and tie them down, plenty of sides have tried, however no side can maintain the intensty required for long enough. We have seen Collingwood keep the Hawks goalless for the opening 17 minutes of their final – they then kicked 20 for the game. Sydney Stopped the hawks kicking a goal in the entire first quarter – they then kicked 15 in the next 3 quarters, just like they did against the Cats.

Dry evening, MCG, big stage.

Bet Hawthorn team total over 116.5 points $1.88 sportsbet